Is Iran Now a Nuclear Power? The Speculation Behind Recent Claims
- Fahad Bin Khalid
- October 8, 2024
- 11:43 am
- 29
Did Iran hold its first-ever nuclear test? Recent claims have flooded social media, and sparked a heated debate. The prevailing thought came as a result of a reported 4.5-magnitude quake near the city of Semnan in Iran, while one user linked seismic activity with a possible nuclear test. These reports have raised significant concerns within the region, which is already fraught with tensions. But what is the truth about the claims? Is it now a nuclear power or simply a misreporting case?
It started when users on X, formerly known as Twitter, pointed to a suspected underground nuclear test in the back of the Iranian earthquake. Social media users connected the epicenter of the quake near the Kavir Desert, which is a huge, open area, and concluded that it was a nuclear detonation. Some users even compared seismic patterns of this event with the tests conducted by countries like North Korea, saying that there were similarities to them.
Significantly, a user with more than 300,000 followers commented that North Korean underground nuclear tests, too, caused similar earthquakes. The user further added that Iran had recently issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) concerning western airspace within it, which limits routes for several hours of the day coinciding with the earthquake. Those claims report that such airspace shutdown was being done to allow a nuclear test.
The question here is whether earthquakes are linked to nuclear tests. For as outrageous the claims are, facts regarding the science of nuclear testing and seismic activity need to be considered. Nuclear explosions do induce tremors. In North Korea, its supposed thermonuclear weapons test in 2017 created a recorded earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3. In another case, India recorded a 4.7 magnitude on the Richter scale after detonating its first Pokhran nuclear test in 1998. In contrast, the earthquake reported in Iran had a magnitude of only 4.5, and thereby, many experts doubted that it was the result of a nuclear explosion.
Seismologists at the University of California, Berkeley, have analyzed the nature of nuclear tests on seismic activities. According to them, the intensity of the tremors depends on both the dimensions of the explosion and the depth at which such a test is carried out. Therefore, although the earthquake in Iran was obviously marked, it was much less intense than the nuclear tests of other nations.
Here, we have to consider the nuclear capability of Iran. You see, Iranian nuclear ambitions have long been a concern of the international community. In 2023, a senior Iranian MP claimed that the country could produce enough uranium to be 90 percent pure, which would be sufficient for a nuclear warhead in as short a time as one week. While Iran claims that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues monitoring the activities of its nuclear program.
According to experts, technically, Iran has the capability to make a nuclear bomb, but still, there exists no confirmative proof that it had conducted a nuclear test or that it has already become officially a nuclear power. One of the American nuclear policy experts, James Acton, said that strikes on nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria, just as Israel did before, are not going to be as effective as they were against Iran. Iran’s current nuclear program is basically based on centrifuges. These are small and can be moved or hidden. Any country such as Israel might fail completely to tackle Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Here, another question arises: could Iran test a nuclear bomb?
Even though the recent earthquake in Iran has sparked rumors and speculations, there is no proof that something like a nuclear test occurred. The severity of the quake is also considered to be less compared to the ones caused by nuclear tests, and the official confirmation of the explosion is still unknown. Not to mention that Iran’s government has not so far released statements regarding the nuclear test, and neither has been reported anywhere internationally, even the monitoring agencies of seismic activities caused by nuclear explosions like the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
For now, allegations of nuclear testing in Iran are no more than a speculation game. Technically speaking, Iran could go ahead and manufacture nuclear weapons, but substantive evidence that it is doing so or that it has already done so still does not exist. What may perhaps be just an earthquake in Semnan recently might have reminded people of the Iranian nuclear program, leaving many asking if it has incipiency to set the already sensitive Middle East ablaze with even more tension.
As with the case of any global issue, it is important to rely only on vetted information from credible sources rather than social media speculation. The rest of the world will continue to keep an eye on Iran’s nuclear developments, but for now, it is unconfirmed that Iran has conducted a nuclear test.
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